Analysis of the AI industry seems to persistently oscillate between frameworks that see it as a high-capex chatbot platform or as “humanity’s last invention” in the form of AGI (artificial general intelligence) or ASI (artificial superintelligence). The former framework has the advantage of aligning with modern tech industry rubrics (from SaaS and other API business models), but I also believe it tends to devolve into “chatbot myopia” and often misses the appropriate unit of economic analysis for AI. The latter, superintelligence view is more exciting but also somewhat ethereal since AGI and ASI are still very poorly defined, shifting any business analysis away from hard facts and toward unmeasurable metaphysical debates.
